GOVERNANCE WATCH
By InsidEntity Editorial Desk · Oct 9, 2026 · 9 min read
One ordinary-looking number, taken apart until the number that matters is on the table.
MTN Group reported service revenue of R218.5bn for 2025, up 22.9%. In MTN’s constant-currency measure, which adjusts for exchange-rate movements, service revenue grew 13.8% in 2024 and 22.7% in 2025. Chained together, on InsidEntity’s calculation, that is roughly 40% growth over two years. MTN does not report a two-year figure.
Underneath sits a much smaller number. Two years earlier, in 2023, service revenue was R210.1bn. In the group’s reporting currency, two years of growth added about 4%.
Three numbers, three different stories. 22.9% is the year. 40% is the business in its own currencies. 4% is what reached the rand.
The number: 22.9%
MTN Group’s reported service revenue growth for the year to 31 December 2025, to R218.5bn from R177.8bn. The results were audited by Ernst & Young and published on 16 March 2026. Constant-currency growth was 22.7%, almost the same, so on its own 2025 looks like a year with no currency story at all.
The question: how much of MTN’s growth survives the trip into rand?
MTN earns in naira, cedi, shillings and CFA francs, and reports in rand. Its constant-currency figures answer how fast the business grew. The rand figures answer what that growth amounted to in the group’s reported accounts. In a single year the two can look alike. Over two years, they do not.
Number 1: about 40% in local currencies, about 4% in rand
The gap opened in 2024. The naira averaged N1,508 to the US dollar that year, against N598 in 2023. MTN’s service revenue grew 13.8% in constant currency, and fell 15.4% in rand.
Service revenue indexed to 2023 = 100. Constant currency chains MTN’s reported growth rates (1.138 × 1.227). Source: MTN Group results 2023–2025; InsidEntity calculation.
| Service revenue | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Rand, reported | R210.1bn | R177.8bn | R218.5bn |
| Reported change | — | −15.4% | +22.9% |
| Constant-currency change | — | +13.8% | +22.7% |
Chain the two constant-currency years and the business grew by about 40%: 1.138 × 1.227 = 1.396. Over the same two years, rand service revenue went from R210.1bn to R218.5bn, an increase of about 4%.
That 40% is an InsidEntity calculation, not an MTN figure, and it is directional. Each year’s constant-currency rate is measured against a prior year translated at that year’s exchange rates, and the group’s footprint changed: MTN exited Afghanistan and Guinea-Conakry in 2024. But the order of magnitude is the point. Two years of strong local growth were almost entirely absorbed, mostly by currency, before they reached the rand.
In 2025 the translation effects largely offset each other at group level. MTN says most of its markets’ currencies weakened against the rand, but the naira firmed to N1,436 to the dollar by year-end, from N1,535, and the Ghanaian cedi strengthened against both the rand and the dollar. Net, reported and constant-currency growth almost matched: 22.9% against 22.7%.
Number 2: 82.6% of the increase came from two markets
Group service revenue rose by R40.7bn in rand in 2025. Nigeria and Ghana produced R33.6bn of it.
Share of the group’s R40,744m rand increase. Source: MTN Group FY2025 results, JSE SENS, table 2; InsidEntity calculations.
| Rm | 2025 | 2024 | Rand increase | Share of increase | Reported | Constant currency |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nigeria | 61 331 | 40 755 | 20 576 | 50.5% | +50.5% | +54.9% |
| Ghana | 35 634 | 22 565 | 13 069 | 32.1% | +57.9% | +35.9% |
| Uganda | 17 703 | 15 317 | 2 386 | 5.9% | +15.6% | +13.5% |
| Cameroon | 13 348 | 10 972 | 2 376 | 5.8% | +21.7% | +19.5% |
| South Africa | 44 030 | 43 175 | 855 | 2.1% | +2.0% | +2.0% |
| Group | 218 500 | 177 756 | 40 744 | 100% | +22.9% | +22.7% |
Nigeria’s 50.5% share of the increase and its 50.5% reported growth are a coincidence of the numbers, not the same measure. The two columns on the right show the currency inside each market. In Nigeria, the naira still cost MTN about four points: 54.9% growth locally, 50.5% in rand. In Ghana it worked the other way. Ghana grew 35.9% locally and 57.9% in rand, a 22-point gap. The stronger cedi accounts for much of it; MTN’s restatement of Ghana’s prior-year figures and hyperinflation accounting also bear on the comparison.
South Africa, MTN’s home market and the one already priced in rand, grew 2.0% and contributed 2.1% of the increase. Its EBITDA fell 10.1% to R17.7bn.
The same concentration runs through profit. Nigeria’s EBITDA more than doubled to R32.5bn and Ghana’s rose to R21.5bn. Together they produced R54.0bn, 54.8% of group EBITDA before once-off items of R98.5bn. In naira, MTN Nigeria’s own accounts show service revenue up 55.1% to N5.2tn and a return to profit after tax of N1.1tn, after a N400.4bn loss in 2024.
Number 3: up 67%, but about 13% on 2023
MTN’s adjusted headline earnings per share rose 67.0% in 2025 to 1,359 cents. The base it rose from was 2024, the year of the naira’s fall.
In 2024, MTN put forex losses at 598 cents a share. Reported headline earnings per share fell 68.9% to 98 cents, and adjusted headline earnings per share fell 32.2% to 816 cents. Set 2025 against 2023 directly and adjusted headline earnings per share is 1,359 cents against 1,203, about 13% higher, not 67%. MTN’s two rounded year-on-year changes, down 32.2% then up 67.0%, chain to roughly the same figure. The 2025 increase is measured against 2024 as restated to 814 cents.
| Per share, cents | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Adjusted headline earnings per share | 1 203 | 816 (−32.2%), restated to 814 | 1 359 (+67.0% on 814) |
| Headline earnings per share | 315 | 98 (−68.9%) | 1 274 |
| Ordinary dividend | 330 | 345 | 500 |
In 2025 the currency line was small. MTN’s reconciliation from headline earnings of R23.2bn to adjusted earnings of R24.7bn carries a foreign exchange impact of R5m. Among the other adjustments are a hyperinflation adjustment of R842m, a deferred tax remeasurement of R1.2bn and other non-operational items of R1.2bn.
The dividend rose faster than earnings. At 500 cents, it is 52% above 2023’s 330 cents, well ahead of the roughly 13% rise in adjusted earnings per share over the same two years. With its 2026 interim results, MTN started a share buyback of up to R6bn, about 31 million shares, under the shareholder return framework it set out with Ambition 2030.
The ratings
On current inputs, MTN Group’s Company Risk Rating is 4.36 (Excellent) and its Financial Stability Rating is 3 (Good).
5 Benchmark > 4 Excellent > 3 Good > 2 Caution > 1 Risk
The CRR is the average of the four pillar scores: (5.00 + 2.94 + 5.00 + 4.50) ÷ 4 = 4.36. Director Independence currently scores 5.00 (Benchmark), subject to change once MTN’s directors submit InsidEntity’s independence questionnaires.
Director Capacity at 2.94 is the lowest pillar: a board-level measure of how thinly directors’ commitments are spread, not a judgement on any individual. Shareholder Influence at 4.50 reflects a register of more than 1,000 shareholders with one recorded holder at or above the 20% material-influence threshold.
Auditor Independence at 5.00 is the top band of the tenure clock. Ernst & Young audited MTN jointly with PricewaterhouseCoopers for 2021 and 2022; PwC’s term ended with the 2022 audit, and EY has audited alone since the 2023 financial year. The clock runs from sole appointment, so 2025 was EY’s third year.
The clock keeps running. When EY signs MTN’s 2026 accounts the firm enters its fourth year, Auditor Independence steps down to 4.00 and the Company Risk Rating falls to 4.11. At six years it reaches 3.00 and the CRR 3.86. Neither move requires MTN to change anything at all.
The FSR is built on a rolling three-year window of audited full years. MTN’s 3 covers 2023 to 2025 — the naira’s fall and the 2025 recovery together — as shown on its financials page, last updated on 25 September 2026. The three years this article pulls apart are the three the rating averages into a single digit.
The InsidEntity takeaway
The headline number is true, but incomplete. 22.9%, 40% and 4% are all accurate, and they describe different things.
MTN’s businesses grew strongly in their own currencies for two years running. Measured in rand, most of that growth was absorbed by the naira’s fall in 2024, and 2025’s rebound was concentrated in two markets, one of them helped by a stronger cedi.
The number to watch next is the gap between constant-currency and reported growth. In 2025 it closed. Whether it stays closed depends less on MTN’s customers than on the naira and the cedi.
Update, 9 October 2026. MTN has since reported its interim results for the six months to 30 June 2026. Group service revenue grew 9.7% in rand and 17.5% in constant currency, a gap of 7.8 percentage points. The gap that closed in 2025 reopened inside one half-year. On the same basis, fintech revenue grew 1.4% in rand and 13.3% in constant currency, a gap of 11.9 points. Reported headline earnings per share fell 5.8% to 615 cents while adjusted headline earnings per share rose 21.3% to 793 cents, both against restated H1 2025 figures. MTN Group: Interim Financial Results for the Six Months Ended 30 June 2026.
Related reading: The Number Behind the Number | 04 BHP; 03 Apple; 01 Naspers. See MTN’s full record on InsidEntity.
Independent research. Not financial advice. No allegation of wrongdoing is made against any individual or entity named.
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Sources: MTN Group financial results for the year ended 31 December 2025, JSE SENS, 16 March 2026, for service revenue and EBITDA by country (tables 2 and 8), the headline earnings reconciliation, the dividend, the auditor and currency commentary; MTN Group annual financial results 2024, for 2024 reported and constant-currency growth, naira average rates, forex losses of 598 cents a share, 2024 HEPS and adjusted HEPS; MTN Group 2023 results, for 2023 service revenue of R210.139bn and the 2023 dividend; MTN Group annual financial results 2022, for the joint auditors PwC and EY and PwC’s term ending with the 2022 audit; MTN Nigeria audited results for FY2025 (NGX); MTN Group H1 2026 results release, for the R6bn share buyback.
Note on figures: Rand increases and shares of the group increase are InsidEntity calculations from MTN’s Rm figures in tables 2 and 8 of the FY2025 SENS. MTN’s FY2025 key-messages page shows Ghana on a different presentation (service revenue R40.9bn, EBITDA R24.5bn) reflecting the Ghana restatement and hyperinflation accounting; this piece uses the country tables throughout and does not mix the two. The two-year 40% chains MTN’s reported constant-currency growth rates for 2024 and 2025 and is not an MTN figure. Ratings are as read from the platform on 9 October 2026.