Would the ratings have picked them in 2023?

The main page applies today’s ratings to past prices, so it includes hindsight. This page removes most of it. We rebuilt each company’s Financial Stability Rating (FSR) as it would have stood in September 2023, using only audited accounts published by then, and compared it with what happened to the share price over the next three years. It is long and detailed, for readers who want to check the work.

The short answer

Strong group: 10 of the 15 would have cleared the FSR bar (4.3 or more) in September 2023, and two more probably or only just (PSG Financial Services and Wendel). Three would not: Argent Industrial, Lighthouse Properties and Old Mutual.
Weak group: 12 of the 15 were already below 3 in September 2023. Two were not: BlueScope and Walsin Lihwa looked healthy in 2023 and deteriorated later. Fairvest is unclear.
What happened next: the companies the 2023 rule confirms as strong returned a typical +86.8% over three years, and 1 of 11 lost money. Those it confirms as weak returned a typical +21.7%, and 5 of 12 lost money.

This tests the FSR only. The governance rating (CRR) was not rebuilt for 2023, because that needs board and AGM records as they stood then. Small groups and one three-year period: this is evidence, not proof.

How we did it

The rule. InsidEntity’s published FSR (version 1): five indicators worth one point each. Revenue growth of 2% or more, net profit margin of 5% or more, positive net assets, and a current ratio of 1.5 or more are each scored over three financial years, a third of a point per year that clears the bar. The fifth point is awarded if operating expenses (excluding cost of sales) are no more than twice cash in the latest year. Full method.
The years. The three most recent audited financial years published by the end of September 2023. Interim results are not used. Revenue growth for the first year uses the year before it.
The sources. Audited annual results: JSE SENS announcements and annual reports, US SEC filings, and company results announcements, cross-checked against stockanalysis.com and Stockopedia. Where one early year was not available, the score is shown as a range.
The returns. The same three-year figures as the main page: $500 in each company at the 29 September 2023 close, in US dollars with dividends. Nothing about the returns was changed for this page.
Checked by the InsidEntity data team and reviewed before publication, 11 October 2026.

The strong 15

Company	Years used	Growth	Margin	Net assets	Current ratio	Cash	FSR, Sep 2023	Clears 4.3 in 2023?	3-year return
Bowler Metcalf	FY2021–FY2023 (June)	3/3	3/3	3/3	3/3	1	5.0	Yes	+72.0%
Naspers	FY2021–FY2023 (March)	3/3	3/3	3/3	3/3	1	5.0	Yes	+35.9%
Stevanato Group	2020–2022	3/3	3/3	3/3	3/3	1	5.0	Yes	−32.6%
Technoprobe	2020–2022	3/3	3/3	3/3	3/3	1	5.0	Yes	+390.0%
Remgro	FY2021–FY2023 (June)	3/3	3/3	3/3	3/3	1	5.0	Yes	+64.8%
DRDGOLD	FY2021–FY2023 (June)	2/3	3/3	3/3	3/3	1	4.7	Yes	+206.8%
AngloGold Ashanti	2020–2022	2/3	3/3	3/3	3/3	1	4.7	Yes	+524.2%
Antofagasta	2020–2022	2/3	3/3	3/3	3/3	1	4.7	Yes	+189.3%
Legrand	2020–2022	2/3	3/3	3/3	3/3	1	4.7	Yes	+86.8%
African Media Entertainment	FY2021–FY2023 (March)	2/3	2/3	3/3	3/3	1	4.3	Yes, just	+68.7%
PSG Financial Services	FY2021–FY2023 (February)	3/3	3/3	3/3	not split¹	1	4.0–5.0	Likely	+166.7%
Wendel	2020–2022	2/3	2/3	3/3	2–3/3²	1	4.0–4.3	Borderline	+36.7%
Argent Industrial	FY2021–FY2023 (March)	2/3	3/3	3/3	3/3	1	3.7	No	+196.3%
Lighthouse Properties	2020 (15 months)–2022	about 2/3	1/3	3/3	about 1/3	0	about 2.7	No	+111.8%
Old Mutual	2020–2022	1/3	1/3	3/3	not split¹	1	2.7–3.7	No	+54.1%

The weak 15

Company	Years used	Growth	Margin	Net assets	Current ratio	Cash	FSR, Sep 2023	Below 3 in 2023?	3-year return
Trustco	FY2020–FY2022	0/3	about 0/3	3/3	not reported	0	about 1.0	Yes	−57.0%
Uniper	2020–2022	2/3	0/3	3/3	0/3	0	1.7	Yes	−50.4%
Telia	2020–2022	0–1/3	1/3	3/3	0/3	0	about 1.7	Yes	+151.5%
VF Corporation	FY2021–FY2023 (March)	1/3	1/3	3/3	1/3	0	2.0	Yes	−14.0%
Bloomin’ Brands	2020–2022	2/3	1/3	3/3	0/3	0	2.0	Yes	−61.9%
KAP	FY2021–FY2023 (June)	2–3/3	1/3	3/3	0/3	0	2.0–2.3	Yes	+35.4%
Dell Technologies	FY2021–FY2023 (January)	2/3	1/3	1/3	0/3	1	2.3	Yes	+781.8%
FedEx	FY2021–FY2023 (May)	2/3	1/3	3/3	1/3	0	2.3	Yes	+43.8%
Meridian Energy	FY2021–FY2023 (June)	≤2/3	≤2/3	3/3	0/3	0	2.3 or less	Yes	+8.0%
Altria Group	2020–2022	1/3	3/3	1/3	0/3	1	2.7	Yes	+102.8%
UPS	2020–2022	3/3	2/3	3/3	0/3	0	2.7	Yes	−29.1%
Hydro One	2020–2022	2/3	3/3	3/3	0/3	0	2.7	Yes	+54.9%
Fairvest	FY2020–FY2022	2–3/3	3/3	3/3	not reported¹	0	2.7–4.0	Unclear	+220.9%
BlueScope	FY2021–FY2023 (June)	1–2/3	3/3	3/3	3/3	0	3.3–3.7	No	+99.8%
Walsin Lihwa	2020–2022	2–3/3	2–3/3	3/3	2–3/3	1	4.0–5.0	No	+17.2%

¹ Insurers and some financial and property companies do not split their balance sheets into current and non-current items, so the current ratio cannot be read directly. These are shown as a range (zero to one point) until the treatment is confirmed.

² Wendel’s current ratio was 1.8 in 2021 and 1.7 in 2022; we could not find its 2020 balance sheet split in public sources, so the score is 4.0 or 4.3.

What happened next

Companies the 2023 rule confirms	Companies	Average 3-year return	Typical company	Lost money
Strong (cleared 4.3 in 2023, incl. PSG)	11	+161.1%	+86.8%	1 of 11
Weak (below 3 in 2023)	12	+80.5%	+21.7%	5 of 12

Returns are the per-company three-year figures from the main page (29 September 2023 close, US dollars, with dividends). “Typical company” is the median. Averages are pulled up by a few large moves: AngloGold Ashanti (+524.2%) and Technoprobe (+390.0%) in the strong group, Dell (+781.8%) in the weak group.

The exceptions, and what they tell us

Lighthouse Properties scores 5.0 today but about 2.7 on 2023 information: it made losses in 2020 and 2021 before its 2022 acquisitions. Its strong rating today is partly hindsight.
Old Mutual scores 2.7–3.7 on 2023 information, whichever way the current ratio is treated: it made a loss in 2020, and its revenue, which for an insurer includes investment returns, fell in 2020 and 2022.
Argent Industrial scores 3.7 on 2023 information: revenue grew only 1.1% in its 2023 financial year, under the 2% bar.
BlueScope and Walsin Lihwa looked healthy in 2023 (3.3–3.7 and 4.0–5.0) and only deteriorated afterwards. The 2023 rule would not have flagged them.
Most of the gap between the groups survives the test, but not all of it. Part of the difference on the main page comes from hindsight, and part may reflect countries, sectors and currency rather than financial stability.

Limits

FSR only. The governance rating (CRR) was not rebuilt for 2023.
Small groups and one three-year period. A few large share-price moves drive the averages.
Some early-year figures were not available from public sources; those scores are shown as ranges.
The groups themselves were chosen with today’s ratings. A fully forward test is the live record that started on 9 October 2026.
Research, not investment advice. No money is invested.

Sources: JSE SENS (senspdf.jse.co.za) results and annual reports for Bowler Metcalf, Naspers, African Media Entertainment, Argent Industrial, PSG Financial Services, Lighthouse Properties, KAP and Remgro; Old Mutual annual financial statements; Wendel annual results releases (AMF filings) and stockanalysis.com for its balance sheet; US SEC EDGAR filings for Altria, Dell, UPS, FedEx, VF Corporation, Bloomin’ Brands, Stevanato, DRDGOLD and AngloGold Ashanti; company results announcements for Antofagasta, Legrand, Hydro One and Meridian Energy; stockanalysis.com and Stockopedia for Uniper, Telia, BlueScope, Walsin Lihwa, Trustco, Fairvest and Technoprobe. Prepared 11 October 2026.

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